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India unlikely to de-escalate tensions

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan has in a very assertive way conveyed to India, through its military response to aerial intrusions earlier this week, that limited scale hostilities cannot be the ‘new norm’ between the arch-rival neighbors, but India is unlikely to change its course at least in the near future.
This was the consensus among military experts at a roundtable on ‘Escalation Management and Control between India and Pakistan’ organized by Islamabad Policy Institute (IPI), an Islamabad-based think tank.
The speakers included former Defence Secretary Lt. Gen (Retd) Asif Yasin Malik, Advisor to Strategic Plans Division Amb Zamir Akram, former Defence Minister Lt. Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi, Amb Ali Sarwar Naqvi, and former Director-General ACDA, Strategic Plans Division Khalid Banuri.
The speakers argued that Indian Prime Minister Modi was looking for a public face-saving before de-escalating the ongoing crisis with Pakistan. They, however, cautioned that there could be more Indian attempts aimed at settling the score with Pakistan’s military forces, which could further escalate tensions between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Lt Gen Asif Yasin Malik said a climb down from the escalatory ladder would be costly for Prime Minister Modi. Return of the Indian pilot was useful for building international image but, he opined, the gesture would not affect Indian calculations regarding escalating or de-escalating tensions.
Speaking about the Indian-held Kashmir, Gen Malik said over 60 percent of the Kashmiri population was below the age of 35 years, which explained why the youth were more unwilling to accept Indian tyranny and occupation. “Dynamics of Kashmir is in nobody’s control, it is on auto-pilot now.”
The crisis, he said, erupted after a Kashmiri boy attacked Indian occupying forces in the Indian-held Kashmir. However, unfortunately, it was being used by the Indian leadership to divert the world’s attention from the Kashmir issue and bolstering BJP’s re-election prospects, the general said.
The former Defence Secretary, while speaking about the current escalation, said a state had to plan for both escalation and de-escalation, and poor planning for any of the two scenarios could lead to war.
Ambassador Zamir Akram stressed the need for escalation management and control to ensure that nuclear deterrence was maintained. He emphasized that de-escalation was only possible once both adversaries had a common interest in de-escalation and unilateral measures aimed at de-escalation would not work.
He identified rationality, signaling, transparency, and credibility as key factors influencing crisis management.
He said the credibility of deterrence was essential for de-escalation. In the previous crises, he recalled, Pakistan and India exercised self-imposed restraint even when they had not tested the nuclear weapons. Now that both neighbors were nuclear powers, the situation demanded much more care, caution and responsibility from both states as well as a greater role of the international community to timely defuse the situation.
It was stated that the credibility of the crisis manager is critical for both sides. Helping India and Pakistan timely de-escalate the ongoing tensions is a test of the U.S. credibility as a crisis manager. During the 1990 crisis, Robert Gates helped diffuse the South Asian crisis. However, in the present situation, it remains to be seen whether the US is part of the problem or solution or both.
In response to a question about next possible steps towards de-escalation, the speakers said restrictions on the individuals demanded by India and meeting some of the requirements of demarche shared by New Delhi could allow Indian political leadership to save face before its voters and de-escalate.
Former Defence Minister Lt Gen (Retd) Naeem Lodhi warned about Indian military attempting more mischief in future. He, therefore, advised continued vigilance.
Khalid Banuri said the current crisis was a test of diplomacy. Pakistani diplomats must internationally highlight the Indian violation of the UN Charter, instigating an unprovoked international armed conflict and grave violations of the UN resolutions.
Defense analyst Syed Muhammad Ali said that Pakistan had simultaneously demonstrated resolve and capability along with restraint in its calculated use of force. The Pakistan Air Force could have caused much greater surprise but restrained itself because it only aimed at dissuading India from any future misadventure.


M M Alam

M. M. Alam is a Pakistan-based working journalist since 1981. Karachi University faculty gold medalist Alam began his career four decades ago by writing for Dawn, Pakistan’s highest circulating English daily. He has worked for region’s leading publications, global aviation periodicals including Rotors (of USA) and vetted New York Times as permanent employee of daily Express Tribune. Alam regularly covers international aviation and defense-related events including Salon Du Bourget (France), Farnborough (United Kingdom), Dubai (UAE). Alam has reported thousands of events and interviewed hundreds of people in Pakistan, UAE, EU, UK and USA. Being Francophone Alam also coordinates with a number of French publications.