LONDON: Oil prices rose while stock markets declined on Friday (18th of March, 2022), as the volatility sparked by the war in Ukraine continued ahead of the weekend.
Investors continued to focus on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its impact on the global economy as surging commodity prices fuel inflation concerns across the globe.
There is concern that the sanctions on Russia could push it into default, but Moscow gave itself breathing room as it paid interest on dollar-denominated bonds due this week.
“There is relief after Russia avoided default on its interest payment, yet oil prices jump again and boost inflation expectations,” said Swissquote senior analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya.
The International Monetary Fund, World Bank and other top world lenders on Friday warned of “extensive” economic fallout from the Ukraine war and expressed “horror” at the “devastating human catastrophe”.
“The entire global economy will feel the effects of the crisis through slower growth, trade disruptions, and steeper inflation,” the institutions – including the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development – wrote in a joint statement.
Warning that the world could face the “biggest oil supply shock in decades”, the International Energy Agency called on governments to urgently implement measures to cut global crude consumption within months.
The IEA also urged OPEC+, the group of oil producers led by Russia and Saudi Arabia, to act to “relieve the strain” on the markets at their next meeting.
Asian equities ended the week mostly on a strong note after a blockbuster rebound boosted by China’s pledge of support for its markets. Hong Kong dipped after soaring midweek.
But on Wall Street, stock prices opened weaker, and eurozone stock markets were all in negative territory in mid-afternoon trading.
In addition to the war, central bank actions were in sharp focus this week.
While the Federal Reserve announced the first of what many think will be seven interest-rate hikes this year, traders have largely accounted for a period of tighter monetary policy.
– Oil price pressure –
Investors remain on edge over further developments in the war.
US President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping held talks, with the White House looking to get Beijing onside in trying to bring an end to the European conflict.
That comes as Russia appeared to play down reports of progress in talks with Ukraine on a ceasefire, while the Pentagon warned Vladimir Putin could threaten to use nuclear weapons if the conflict dragged on.
But while the extreme volatility caused by Russia’s invasion has died down for now, commentators remain cautious.
The uncertainty over Ukraine, and reports that some lockdown measures in Chinese tech hub Shenzhen – which helped fuel a market sell-off earlier this week – were being eased early, has helped push oil prices back up above $100 per barrel.
Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said the oil price would probably remain elevated.
“Market internals suggest that oil’s downside remains sticky even when Ukraine and Russia are inching towards peace,” he said.
“So there is a genuine belief that even if the war does end, sanctions on Russia will likely persist, making oil supplies tougher to source for longer.”
– Key figures around 1345 GMT –
New York – DOW: DOWN 0.4 percent at 34,343.86 points
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.3 percent at 7,360.70
Frankfurt – DAX: DOWN 0.7 percent at 14,283.85
Paris – CAC 40: DOWN 0.8 percent at 6,561.22
EURO STOXX 50: DOWN 0.6 percent at 3,861.31
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: DOWN 0.4 percent at 21,412.40 (close)
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 0.7 percent at 26,827.43 (close)
Shanghai – Composite: UP 1.1 percent at 3,251.07 (close)
Brent North Sea crude: UP 0.8 percent at $107.53 per barrel
West Texas Intermediate: UP 1.2 percent at $102.88 per barrel
Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.1016 from $1.1095 late Thursday
Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.3124 from $1.3149
Euro/pound: DOWN at 83.94 pence from 84.35 pence
Dollar/yen: UP at 119.24 yen from 118.64 yen
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